Source data
$6,435,072
$1,016,595
$2,014,022
98.11%
18.70%
Revenue basis — three methods
Method 1
$8.1M
L3M × 4 — annualized run-rate from the most recent quarter
Q1 2026 Revenue$2,014,022
× 4 (annualized)× 4
= Annualized ARR$8,056,090
Conservative — doesn't account for seasonality or growth within the year.
Method 2
$10.8M
Q1 ÷ seasonality % — adjusts for Q1 being historically 18.7% of annual
Q1 2026 Revenue$2,014,022
÷ Q1 season. weight÷ 18.70%
= Season. adj. annual$10,772,767
Corrects for Q1 being a lighter quarter — best view of true annual run-rate.
Method 3
$12.7M
Forward TTM — trailing revenue grown by YTD YoY rate (98.11%)
TTM Revenue$6,435,072
× (1 + 98.11%)× 1.9811
= Forward TTM$12,741,441
What the business looks like over the next 12 months if the observed growth rate holds.
Revenue basis range across all methods
$8.1M – $12.7M
Contracted Base (entering Q2)
$8.5M
Already contracted as of Apr 2026
Q1 2026 Booked (YTD)
$2.787M
Jan $598K · Feb $914K · Mar $1.13M
NRR Assumption (modeled)
120%
Conservative — actual running ~135%
Implied Q2–Q4 Pipeline
~$9M
$3M/qtr pace × 3 qtrs TCV
YTD YoY Growth
98%
Modeled at 75% going forward
Model logic
Contracted base floor
$8.5M run rate contracted entering Q2. Renewals at 120% NRR (conservative; actual ~135%). Base compounds at renewal, never resets.
New bookings recognition
~65% of Q1 bookings are already in the contracted base or recognized in Q1 actuals. Only ~$730K carries forward as incremental Q2–Q4 revenue. March bookings are the cleanest.
Growth rate
Q1 YoY was 98%. Modeled at 75% for Q2–Q4 as a conservative discount. This drives both new logo pace and expansion on renewals.
Monthly recognized revenue — 2026 full year
Contracted base · Q1 YTD ratable · Q2–Q4 new bookings (partial-year recognition)
Q1 Actuals
Contracted base (renewing at NRR)
Q1 new deals (ratable recognition)
New pipeline (Q2–Q4, projected)
2026 — quarterly recognized revenue
Actuals Q1 · Projected Q2–Q4
Full-year 2026 recognized
Dec 2026 exit run-rate (annualized)
2027 — what this sets up
2026 exit run rate becomes 2027 contracted floor
2027 floor after NRR renewal (120% modeled — conservative; actual ~135%)
2027 total incl. continued pipeline
Monthly detail — Apr through Dec 2026
All three revenue layers by month
| Month | Contracted Base | Q1 YTD Ratable | New Pipeline | Total | Annualized |
|---|
Packaging industry comp set — EV/Revenue multiples
These are no-growth incumbents. They still trade at 1.3–2.8x revenue. Earth Brands grows at 98% YoY.
| Company | EV ($B) | EV/EBITDA | EBITDA Margin | Revenue ($B) | EV/Revenue |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diversified Packaging — Trading Comps | |||||
| Amcor | $37.0 | 12x | 22% | $14.0 | 2.6x |
| Aptar | $10.0 | 10x | 21% | $4.8 | 2.1x |
| Sonoco | $10.0 | 8x | 18% | $6.9 | 1.4x |
| Mondi | $10.0 | 7x | 17% | $8.4 | 1.2x |
| Huhtamaki | $5.0 | 7x | 16% | $4.5 | 1.1x |
| Karat Packaging | $0.6 | 10x | 12% | $0.5 | 1.2x |
| Winpak | $2.0 | 7x | 14% | $2.1 | 1.0x |
| Sub-median | — | 8x | 17% | — | 1.2x |
| Diversified Packaging — Transaction Comps | |||||
| Novolex acquires Pactiv Apr 2025 |
$6.7 | 8x | 16% | $5.2 | 1.3x |
| Fabri-Kal acq. by Pactiv Oct 2021 |
$0.4 | 7x | 16% | $0.3 | 1.1x |
| Sysco acquires Restaurant Depot Mar 2026 |
$29.1 | — | — | $16.2 | 1.8x |
| Sub-median | — | 8x | 16% | — | 1.3x |
| Paper & Paperboard — Trading Comps | |||||
| Smurfit Westrock | $38.0 | 11x | 25% | $13.8 | 2.8x |
| International Paper | $34.0 | 11x | 22% | $14.0 | 2.4x |
| Packaging Corp. of America | $24.0 | 10x | 21% | $11.4 | 2.1x |
| Graphic Packaging | $9.0 | 8x | 16% | $7.0 | 1.3x |
| Sub-median | — | 10x | 21% | — | 2.2x |
| Blended Median (all 16 comps) | — | 9x | 18% | — | 1.5x |
| Earth Brands | — | expanding | expanding | ~$10M | 2–5x target |
| 98% YoY growth · AI-automated ops · vertically integrated · data moat · zero headcount added as revenue scaled | |||||
Sources: Public filings 2024–2025. EV/Revenue per TTM. Sysco/Restaurant Depot: Mar 2026 deal, $29.1B. Novolex/Pactiv: Apr 2025, $6.7B. Fabri-Kal/Pactiv: Oct 2021, $0.4B. Blended median across 16 comps (7 diversified packaging, 3 transactions, 4 paper/paperboard).
Implied EV/Revenue multiple at each valuation
Across three revenue basis methods — comp median 1.5x shown for reference
| Revenue Basis | Revenue | @ $12M | @ $15M | @ $18M | @ $20M | @ $23M |
|---|
What comp-justified value looks like today
If Earth Brands were priced like its peers, what would the valuation be?
| Revenue Basis | Revenue | @ 1.5x floor | @ 2x base | @ 2.5x bull | @ 3x premium |
|---|
Even at the no-growth floor (1.5x), comp-justified value ranges from —.
At a growth-adjusted 2.25x, it's —.
Vertical integration advantage
Earth Brands controls two nodes of the supply chain that incumbents outsource — manufacturing/printing and distribution/selling. Legacy players pay margin to both. Earth Brands captures both.
+8–12%
Mfg margin captured in-house
+5–8%
Dist margin captured in-house
AI ERP + self-serve ordering
The biggest overhead cost for legacy packaging companies is headcount. Earth Brands replaces this with AI-powered back-end automation (Earth Central) and a self-serve platform (Earth Store).
+513%
Active customers YoY on Earth Central
0
Ops headcount added as revenue scaled
Investor returns model
Adjust assumptions and see your potential return in real time
Assumptions
2026 Base Revenue
$10M
$8M$14M
YoY Growth Rate
80%
50%125%
Revenue trajectory
Years to Exit
4yr
2yr7yr
Scenario presets
SAFE Valuation Cap
independent of scenario
$18M
$10M$25M
Exit Value
—
—
Return Multiple
—
on cap
IRR
—
annualized
Scenario comparison — Conservative 1.5x · Base 2.25x · Premium 3.0x revenue
SAFE note converts at valuation cap · Returns shown as gross multiples on invested capital
Why an incumbent will pay 2–5x revenue
The floor is 1.5x for zero-growth incumbents. Earth Brands earns a premium on every dimension.
01
Customer base + growth rate — cheaper to buy than lose to us
At 98% YoY, Earth Brands is taking market share faster than incumbents can respond. The longer they wait, the more expensive the acquisition. At some point it's cheaper to buy us than keep losing the SMB segment to a vertically integrated competitor they can't replicate.
02
Data moat — aggregating fragmented SMBs, can't buy off the shelf
Earth Brands holds behavioral data on thousands of SMB buyers — order frequency, SKU mix, churn signals, reorder timing. Incumbents have SKUs. They don't have this. It accretes with every order and can't be licensed or replicated. Acquiring EB means acquiring the intelligence layer on the most fragmented, hardest-to-reach customer segment in the industry.
03
AI ERP — deploy across their customer base, the cost savings are transformational
Earth Central runs the full ops stack with zero headcount added as revenue grew 98%. Incumbents run bloated ops orgs. An acquirer who deploys Earth Central across their existing base buys a cost structure transformation — not just revenue. The multiple reflects future savings, not just current earnings.
04
Platform expansion — software story embedded, additional upside
Earth Store is a self-serve ordering platform. Earth Central is an AI ERP. Software trades at 8–20x revenue; distributors at 0.5–1.5x. Earth Brands looks like a distributor on the P&L — but the underlying architecture is a platform. An acquirer gets the revenue base at a packaging multiple and the platform optionality effectively free.